Method
What is prognostic modeling
Prognostic modeling is a way to see how your business system behaves: product, market, clients, team, risks. Instead of surveys and slide decks we build a living model of the system where every element gets a representative - a trained participant or a figure on the interactive board. The model reveals connections and tensions invisible in reports - in hours, not months.
Three modes
Diagnostics
“What is really going on?” The model makes hidden processes visible: why a decision stalls, where energy drains, what holds the symptom.
Change instrument
“How to fix it?” Steps are tested inside the model - reshuffles, new roles, structure changes - before you make them in reality.
Scenario modeling
“What happens if?” Comparing futures: launch A or B, a new price, a new market, a new leader.
How a session works
- 1
Preparation. We gather data about your question: product, audience, market, constraints. We define the question and the model roles.
- 2
Online session on a 3D board. An analyst-facilitator unfolds the model: representatives of system elements take their places, and the configuration reveals the dynamics. You watch in real time and ask questions.
- 3
Report. Session recording, a map of the dynamics found, and recommendations - material for your decision.
Confidential by default
The “concealed modeling” format: representatives do not know your company name, product or question details - roles are labeled neutrally. This removes participant bias and protects trade secrets.
Honest about the limits
We believe honesty about limitations is part of professionalism. Modeling:
- -is not an oracle or a prediction - it informs your decision but does not make it for you;
- -does not work with questions outside your zone of influence;
- -is pointless if the decision is already made internally - it will not make it “easier”;
- -is not a panacea: it is one analysis instrument that complements classic methods rather than replacing them.
Lineage of the method
It is based on the systemic-phenomenological approach developed in Europe for over 30 years: Bert Hellinger (founder), Gunthard Weber (first brought the method into organizations), Matthias Varga von Kibéd and Insa Sparrer (structural branch), Jan Jacob Stam (Bert Hellinger Instituut, Netherlands - application to business, brands and products). Professional standards are set by the infosyon and DGfS associations.
Publicly we speak the language of business analytics. The classic name of the method is organizational constellations; we respect the sources and state the origin honestly.